So my thoughts on this topic have to do with the very defintion of "safety."

As an outsider from the states who's studied the adoption of electric forms of transportation in China, Europe, and now e-bikes in Toronto, I truly appreciate Lock's attempt at the question starting from a data-driven approach. Calling out the flawed assumption that number of accidents WITHOUT a PER # of VEHICLES was spot on! However, I think Lock was so close to the driving answer for this question, but missed one critical conclusion...

"Safety" when it comes to transportation is really nothing more than a numbers, speed, mass, and volume (size of the vehicle) relationship whose product is congestion.

Said another way, MORE congestion (numbers) equals LESS Safety. GREATER differences in speed and mass equals LESS SAFETY.

Based upon these 2 relationships once should conclude that Toronto is less safe for biking:

- more vehicles, and higher differences in speed = more congestion
- bigger differences in speeds between vehicles with bigger differences in mass = less safety (for (e)bike riders

So if we believe Lock's data that there are more bikers, and we can only assume their are more autos (Can anyone confirm or deny this?) Then the result is that riders are inherently less safe than in the past.


-=So I voted LESS SAFE.=-


Now for possible solutions... Look at the cities in China, in 2006 quantitative data was gathered by a research group from UC Berkely demonstrated this exact same conclusion where congestion = more crashes and injuries per unit of vehicles on the road.

The solution, however, was that knowing they could not control numbers, (people traveling in the city) nor did they want to, but they could control all of the other factors: speed, mass, and volume. So they devised a set of rings around the city. he outermost ring, anything goes: cars, trucks, gas motorcycles, bikes, e-bikes, whatever. The middle ring outlaws gas powered motorcycles, and introduces buses for mass transit. Trucks are unlimited, but autos require permits. The center circle allows only mass transit, bicycles and usually e-bikes, and a limited number of permit carrying cars and trucks.

So by permitting what vehicles can go where, you can alter the mix of speed mass and volume (size of the vehicle) and ultimately provide safer traveling. The crazy part though... Permits are NOT granted on a "NEED" basis, instead they go to the highest bidder. And China has the AUDACITY to call themselves a socialist economic society...

Seen here:
http://www2.macleans....

We’re not imagining things: traffic really is getting worse. Statistics Canada reports the average time spent commuting to and from work nationwide increased from 54 minutes in 1992 to 63 minutes in 2005. In a year, that adds up to about 32 working days spent sitting in traffic (five more than in 1992). And that’s the average. In Calgary, it’s 66 minutes; in Vancouver, 67; in Toronto and Montreal, it’s now up to nearly 80 minutes a day. For one in four Canadians, the two-way commute takes more than 90 minutes.

In part that’s because people are travelling further to work: commute distances have increased 10 per cent in a decade. But it’s also because everyone’s moving slower: average rush-hour traffic speeds in Toronto, for example, declined by 24 per cent between 1986 and 2006. The result is to make these trips much longer than they need to be: as much as 37 minutes—nearly half—of the average Torontonian’s daily commute is due to traffic delays. In a year, that’s an extra 18 days in the car.

So yes, more traffic these daze, but I *hope* that slower traffic means safer traffic... for cyclists and pedestrians...

Lock

Part of the problem is that speed and risk are not directly propertional, but speed and travel time are.

So a vehicle moving 80 kph is not twice as likely to get into an accident during any given minute of travel as one moving 40 kph... but the 40 kph vehicle spends more time on the road than the 80 kph one, so it's actually probably more likely to get into an accident.

Yesh . . theories and supporting googled data abound, but the original poll - http://www.ebikerider... (which is now at 90% saying they feel less safe on the streets of Toronto) asked "Based on your experience, has riding in Toronto become: 1)Less Safe 2)Unchanged or 3)More Safe ?"

In response to the actual question, I had to say I feel less safe . . at first I did not want to admit that I felt that way . . it was Ms. Jamin who first began to tell me about the increased level of hostility she was experiencing this year . . and thus this poll, to take the "temperature" of folks who are really riding on Toronto streets.

I feel sure having a nasty, bike-hating, bike-lane killing mayor at city hall has helped to poison the atmosphere . . the "war-on-cars" troglodytes feel emboldened . . and we have become the targets of this recently empowered lunatic fringe, imho.

staying alive cheers

I don't know how to judge safety on our streets compare to the last year. Last year I was riding regular bike ( mostly on the sidewalks and out of Downtown core), this year since April I go every day Warden/Danforth to Union St..
After first couple weeks I found route that has wider streets, some bike paths (I ride on these ) and some small streets. I wasn't harassed by drivers or bikers (yet) and I watch for taxis as well. Yesterday one of the big MiniVan Taxis did the same trick - passed me and then stoped right in front of me.
I also put extra reflective stripes on my knapsack and have flashing light on it as well.
I just have to say that I was biking in few places around the world and I felt more respected as biker there then here in Toronto (the last place was Beijing).
In Toronto I definitely don't like to go west of Yonge but maybe because I don't know that part as well as east side.
keep safe

I don't know how to judge safety on our streets compare to the last year. Last year I was riding regular bike ( mostly on the sidewalks and out of Downtown core), this year since April I go every day Warden/Danforth to Union St..
After first couple weeks I found route that has wider streets, some bike paths (I ride on these ) and some small streets. I wasn't harassed by drivers or bikers (yet) and I watch for taxis as well. Yesterday one of the big MiniVan Taxis did the same trick - passed me and then stopped right in front of me.
I also put extra reflective stripes on my knapsack and have flashing light on it as well.
I just have to say that I was biking in few places around the world and I felt more respected as biker there then here in Toronto (the last place was Beijing).
In Toronto I definitely don't like to go west of Yonge but maybe because I don't know that part as well as east side.
keep safe

Yes, I hear you Danuta, r-e-s-p-e-c-t is the missing ingredient on the streets of Toronto, that is the sad truth. The Toronto Sun was calling all cyclists "Helmet-Heads" recently, and the mental mayor says publicly that if we get killed it will be our own fault for being on the road intended for cars and trucks only.

What will it take to get the Ford Nation fascists to respect the humanity of their fellow citizen road-users? What might help? Seriously, what?

don't-drop-that-bomb-on-me ~ cheers